China has gradually isolated itself in the Asia-Pacific through its belligerent wolf warrior diplomacy and maritime ambitions.
Southeast Asia wants to manage China’s growth, not be pressured into a situation where it must choose sides.
Risking a nuclear conflict with China undermines the livelihood and prosperity of all. But such a choice can and should be avoided in the foreseeable future.
When it comes to Taiwan, America can only protect its interests if it commits in a transparent manner to a diplomatic resolution rather than a military one.
As Ukraine fights for sovereignty and territory, Taiwan is increasingly inspired to think more highly of its own self-defense.
Western commentators hoping that the Evergrande crisis is a sign of Chinese decline are mistaken. The CCP will neither let Evergrande blow up or bail them out.
Kazakhstan’s unrest has shown that politics must be viewed not only through the lens of great power competition, but also through local economic and political concerns.
Rather than helping Taiwan prepare for conventional defense by hitting targets in the Chinese mainland — a strategy that could further provoke the PRC while failing to match the PLA’s superior firepower — the United States should encourage Taiwan to develop its asymmetric capabilities.
Russia does not possess enough latent power to seek military entanglement, but it might not have to if the U.S. and China were to fight a long and costly war. Russia would be thrilled with a conflict that saps the strengths of both its largest competitors.
American and Chinese interests do indeed overlap and clash at various points across the globe, from the halls of foreign governments to social media posts online. Yet this does not preordain war nor does the “Allison Trap” provide a useful framework for understanding rising tensions or their associated risks.